THE SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19
NFL
Miami (4-5 SU and ATS) at Carolina (4-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams looking to get back to .500 square off when the Dolphins travel to Bank of America Stadium for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.
Miami let a 19-6 halftime lead slip away Sunday against Tampa Bay, giving up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to fall behind 23-22 before rallying for a 25-23 victory on a field goal in the waning seconds. The Dolphins failed to cash as a hefty 10-point home chalk, after covering in four of their previous five games (3-2 SU).
Miami racked up 199 rushing yards against the Bucs, with Ricky Williams (20 carries, 102 yards) and Ronnie Brown (12 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) doing the bulk of the work. The Dolphins have the league’s fourth-best rushing attack for the year (156.2 ypg), but Brown – the catalyst for the Miami’s “Wildcat” offense – suffered an injured right foot in the win and has been ruled out for tonight.
Carolina dropped visiting Atlanta 28-19 Sunday as a one-point underdog to cover for the third straight week (2-1 SU), and it was also the first time in four tries this year that the Panthers cashed at home. QB Jake Delhomme was miserable in the first six games of the year, committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two fumbles), but over the past three weeks, he’s got three TD passes and no INTs.
Perhaps no coincidence, Delhomme has gotten a lot of help lately from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has 640 rushing yards and five TDs over the past five weeks, including three games of 149 yards or more. In fact, the Panthers are one spot ahead of the Dolphins on the rushing list, averaging 156.6 ypg, and they had 185 in Sunday’s win over the Falcons.
These squads have met just three times in regular-season play since 1998, with Miami going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Dolphins earned a 27-24 home win as a three-point pup in September 2005. In a preseason meeting this past August, Miami won 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk.
The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the highway and 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road pup, but they shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 7-19-1 against losing teams, 2-5 in November and 5-11-3 as an underdog of three points or less. The Panthers had failed to cash in four straight home games prior to the win over the Falcons and they’re still just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home chalk. On the positive end, Carolina is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in November and 6-0-1 laying three points or less.
The over has hit in five of six overall for Miami and is on an 11-5 run for the Dolphins against losing teams. Conversely, coach Tony Sparano’s troops are also on “under” stretches of 9-3 in November, 15-5 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 6-1 as a road pup.
The over has been the play in five of Carolina’s last six November outings, but otherwise the Panthers are on “under” rolls of 14-6 at home and 4-0 as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Colorado (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Oklahoma State (8-2, 5-3-1 ATS)
Colorado will attempt to snap an 11-game road losing skid when it travels south to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., for a Big 12 battle with the 12th-ranked Cowboys, who will be without starting quarterback Zac Robinson.
The Buffalos are coming off Saturday’s 17-10 loss at Iowa State, failing to cover as a five-point road underdog. Colorado had a huge 390-310 edge in total offense, but committed three turnovers as it fell to 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) in Big 12 play. The Buffaloes have followed up a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cover in three of their last four.
Oklahoma State outlasted Texas Tech 24-17 on Saturday Night, cashing as a 4½-point home favorite. The Cowboys rolled up 251 rushing yards on 60 carries, which helped them hold the ball for more than 37 minutes. However, Oklahoma State still got outgained overall (357-341), and it also lost Robinson, who had a team-high 99 rushing yards, to a head injury after a hard collision in the final two minutes. Robinson, a senior, has been ruled out of his final home game, leaving the offense in the hands of junior Alex Cate, who will be making his first collegiate start.
The Cowboys (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS in conference) will be trying to keep alive their slim hopes for a Big 12 South title. Oklahoma State trails third-ranked Texas by one game in the standings, but needs to win out and have the Longhorns lose their final two games to steal the division title, as Texas has the tiebreaker edge based on a 41-14 win over the Cowboys three weeks ago.
Robinson (217 passing yards, one passing TD, one rushing TD) guided the Cowboys to a 30-17 win at Colorado last year, but the Buffs covered as a 17-point home underdog. The road team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry going back to 2001, and Colorado has covered in the last two after going 1-6 ATS in the previous seven meetings. The Buffs are 6-1 SU in their last seven trips to Oklahoma State.
Colorado has been outscored by an average of 14.4 points per game in its five road defeats this year (32.8-18.4), and the Buffs have produced a total of 30 points in their three Big 12 road losses (Texas, Kansas State, Iowa State). On the other hand, the Cowboys are 5-2 at home (4-2 ATS in lined action), with the four wins against Division I-A competition coming by an average of 13.5 ppg, while the two losses – to Texas and Houston – were by margins of 27 and 10 points.
The Buffaloes have covered in four straight games as a double-digit underdog and they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight against winning teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five after a SU defeat. However, they’re also in ATS declines of 6-15 on the road, 4-13 as a road pup and 3-7 after a non-cover.
Oklahoma State is on pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall (all in Big 12 play), 37-16-2 as a favorite, 9-2 as a home chalk, 21-6 as a favorite of more than 10 points, 14-5 against losing opponents and 8-3 when coming off a spread-cover.
The over is 9-3 in Colorado’s last 12 November outings, 6-2 in its last eight after a SU loss and 4-0 in its last four games on field turf. For the Cowboys, the “over” is on streaks of 32-13 at home and 8-3 versus losing teams, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-0 in their last four as a favorite.
Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-0 in Stillwater).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Syracuse (2-0 SU and ATS) vs. (13) California (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
(at New York)
Syracuse makes the short trek south to Madison Square Garden to battle the 13th-ranked Golden Bears in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic.
The Orange bounced back from a stunning preseason loss to Division II Le Moyne with a pair of blowout season-opening victories over Albany (75-43 as a 20-point home favorite) and Robert Morris (100-60 as an 18½-point home chalk). Not only did Syracuse shoot 53.3 percent from the field in the two victories, but it held both opponents to just 31.6 percent.
California survived a season-opening scare against Murray State, eking out a 75-70 win as a 13½-point home favorite on Nov. 9, then followed that with last Thursday’s 95-61 rout of Detroit as a 17-point chalk. The Bears, who are the highest-ranked Pac-10 squad this season, stumbled to the finish line last year, losing five of their final seven games, including the last three in a row.
Syracuse is on ATS runs of 11-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-0 when coming off a victory over more than 20 points. Cal snapped a four-game ATS funk with last week’s easy cover against Detroit, but it is still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall. The Bears also have failed to cover in four straight neutral-site games, but otherwise they’re on pointspread surges of 5-2 in non-conference games, 11-5 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 4-0 following a victory of more than 20 points.
The over is on runs of 7-1 for Syracuse overall, 13-3 for Syracuse at neutral sites, 20-7 for Syracuse after a SU win, 5-2 when Syracuse plays on Thursday, 35-16-1 for Cal overall, 13-3 for Cal at neutral sites, 4-1 for Cal in non-conference games and 22-8 when Cal plays on Thursday.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) North Carolina (3-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. (15) Ohio State (2-0 SU and ATS)
(at New York)
North Carolina shoots for its 10th consecutive victory overall and fourth in a row to begin this season when it takes on the Buckeyes in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden.
The Tar Heels are coming off a competitive 88-77 home win over Valparaiso on Sunday, falling way short of covering as a 23-point home favorite. Going back to their 89-72 victory over Michigan State in the national championship game back in April, North Carolina has scored 89, 88, 89 and 88 points in its last four games, while allowing 72 or more in three of those contests. Since losing to Florida State in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last March, the Heels have posted nine straight double-digit victories (7-2 ATS), averaging 88 ppg while giving up 66.3 ppg.
Going back to the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 80-8 SU. And despite losing a ton of talent to the NBA, the defending champs are shooting a blistering 57.1 percent from the field through their first three games while holding the opposition to 35.8 percent shooting.
Ohio State sprinted out of the gate with a pair of lopsided home wins over Alcorn State (100-60 as a 39-point favorite) and James Madison (72-44 as a 19-point chalk). The Buckeyes, who outshot their first two opponents by a combined 49.6 percent to 32.7 percent, bowed out in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament after losing to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Thad Matta’s squad is just 7-6 in its last 13 games, but it has cashed in five of its last six.
These schools squared off in the ACC-Big Ten challenge in 2006 and 2007, with the Tar Heels prevailing both times by scores of 98-89 as an 8½-point home favorite and 66-55 as a 5½-point road ‘dog.
UNC possesses nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall, 37-12 in non-conference play, 5-0 against the Big Ten, 5-1 on Thursday, 6-0 at neutral sites (going back to last year’s NCAA Tournament run) and 6-0 against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is on ATS rolls of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at neutral venues, 14-4 in non-league play, 4-0 after a SU win, 14-6 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on Thursday, but the Buckeyes are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against ACC opponents.
The under is 5-2 in the Tar Heels’ last seven at neutral sites, 4-1 in their last five on Thursday, 6-2 in Ohio State’s last eight overall and 7-1 in OSU’s last eight after an outright victory.
The winner of this contest takes on the Syracuse-Cal winner in Friday’s tournament finale.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NBA
Chicago (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS)
The Bulls continue their six-game Western Conference road swing with a stop at the Staples Center in Los Angeles to face the defending world champion Lakers.
Chicago opened the road trip with Tuesday’s 101-87 win in Sacramento, cashing in as a 2½-point favorite as Luol Deng had 16 points and 10 rebounds to go with Joakim Noah’s 15 points and 14 boards. It was just the Bulls’ second road win of the season (2-3 SU and ATS) and the first time they scored in triple digits this season. Their previous high was in Saturday’s 94-88 home win over the Sixers.
Los Angeles snapped a two-game SU and ATS losing streak with Tuesday’s 106-93 home win over the Pistons, covering as a 9½-point favorite. Kobe Bryant poured in 40 points – the 100th time in his career he hit that plateau –and dished out five assists while center Andrew Bynum had 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The Lakers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series and three straight (2-1 ATS) at Staples Center. They scored a 116-109 home win last November but came up short as 13-point favorites, then went to Chicago in March and rolled 117-109 as a 3 ½-point chalk. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall, but the road team has cashed in four of the last five overall and the ‘dog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road ‘dog and 1-5 ATS in its last six after getting one day off, but the Bulls are on positive ATS runs of 14-1-1 against the Western Conference, 11-2 against Pacific Division teams, 19-9-1 as an underdog and 10-4 on Thursday. The Lakers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records, but they’re otherwise on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4 on Thursday, 4-1 at home, 5-1 against Central Division teams and 4-1 against Eastern Conference squads.
Chicago is on several “under” runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 6-1 against Western Conference teams, 4-0 as a ‘dog, 7-2 on Thursday and 5-2 against Pacific Division teams. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 11-4 at home, 34-16-1 as a favorite, 20-7 on Thursdays, 12-4 against Eastern Conference teams and 6-1 following a spread-cover. In this rivalry, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 clashes overall, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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